If the US would have invaded it Cuba would not have been the socialist "dictatorship" (let's call it how it is) it is today. The situation of 1962 would
have never occured and thus the missile removal in Italy and Turkey would also never been done.
Now, if there would have been no invasion nor any attack the USSR would have seen no reason to back-up Cuba.
Resulting in a socialis dictatorship with no real restrictions (if we can follow the timeline from 1962).
What would have happened if the Belgians-Dutch kept New-Amsterdam?